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Money is hard to break bureau a lack of caution shock rise reason-vy canis majoris

Posted on June 4, 2018 by hanson

Funds cautious, the bureau is difficult to break, A shares lack of reasons for rising, hot column funds to thousands of stocks, thousands of stocks, diagnostics, the latest rating analog Trading Client Sina fund exposure platform: letter Phi lag false propaganda, performance is lower than the same kind of products for a long time, buy fund by pit how to do? Click on [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! Agencies believe that the current A shares by the internal and external factors, the risk benefit ratio decreased, but before the end of the systemic risk and innovation probability is not low, the medium term is still a snail shell to do temple, on a very small space. Guest: Societe Generale Securities chief strategist Wang Delun Shen Wanhongyuan (senior securities analyst Xie Weiyu strategy XinDa securities strategist Gu Yongtao A shares significant holiday effect, shrinkage index within a narrow range, most of them are off. Agencies believe that the current A shares by the internal and external factors, the risk benefit ratio decreased, but before the end of the systemic risk and innovation probability is not low, the medium term is still a snail shell to do temple, on a very small space. Lack of reasons for the rise of China Securities Journal: after the National Day A share market will change what kind of change? Wang Delun: from the past 16 years before and after the national day and the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index in October, after the National Day in the first week, the Shanghai Composite Index to obtain positive income probability is 75%, the average income is 0.64%, the probability of obtaining positive income is slightly larger. But in October, the probability of positive and negative returns was the same, with an average return of 0.27%. Therefore, there is no obvious law to follow from the whole month. The current A stock market affected by domestic factors, the risk benefit ratio decreased, but still the middle of the stock of the game, a snail shell to do temple pattern. Overseas, the Fed rate hike, the U.S. presidential election, Deutsche Bank, Italy constitutional referendum events have led to increased uncertainty overseas, has not ruled out any "black swan" event, thus affecting the risk preference of A shares. Domestically, there is no need to worry too much about the economy in the short term. But still should pay attention to several possible marginal inflection point, such as the marginal inflection point of the real estate regulation, the marginal inflection point of monetary policy, the continuous tightening of the regulatory level, the financial deleveraging, the inflection point of the release of credit risk. Needs to be emphasized is that the future of the risk point of verification or falsification may lead to the phase of the market volatility, but before the end of the systemic risk and innovation probability is not low, the medium term is still the snail shell to do temple. Xie Weiyu: we are cautious about the trend, and the adjustment may not be over yet. In the short term, the market fluctuations in the core interval no upward market reason, in the vicinity of range limit launched a long time dissipative rotation, hot industry quick movement must be accompanied by the stock of capital consumption, the current adjustment is normal repair of market microstructure. On the whole, the overseas political risk fermentation, growth, loose and constraint contradictory movement to intensify is not negligible small probability events, the formation of global risk assets inhibition. There will be a weak rebound in October, but we should be cautious about the market structure. Gu Yongtao: after entering the September, the market has shrunk and fluctuated, and the Shanghai composite index fluctuates

资金谨慎震局难破 A股缺乏上涨理由 热点栏目 资金流向 千股千评 个股诊断 最新评级 模拟交易 客户端 新浪基金曝光台:信披滞后虚假宣传,业绩长期低于同类产品,买基金被坑怎么办?点击【我要投诉】,新浪帮你曝光他们!   机构认为,当前A股受国内外因素影响,风险收益比下降,但年底前出现系统性风险甚至创新低的概率不大,中期来看仍是螺蛳壳里做道场,上下空间很小。   嘉宾:   兴业证券首席策略 分析师王德伦   申万宏源(证券高级策略分析师谢伟玉   信达证券策略分析师谷永涛   A股节日效应明显,指数缩量窄幅震荡、热点大多熄火。机构认为,当前A股受国内外因素影响,风险收益比下降,但年底前出现系统性风险甚至创新低的概率不大,中期来看仍是螺蛳壳里做道场,上下空间很小。   缺乏上涨理由   中国证券报:国庆节后A股行情会有什么样的变化?   王德伦:从过去16年国庆前后以及10月份上证综指的表现来看,国庆后的第一周,上证综指取得正收益的概率是75%,平均收益是0.64%,取得正收益的概率略大。但从10月份来看,取得正收益与负收益的概率相同,平均收益0.27%。因此从整个月份来看,并没有明显的规律可循。   当前A股市场受国内外因素影响,风险收益比下降,但仍是中期存量博弈、螺蛳壳里做道场的格局。海外方面,美联储加息、美国大选、德银事件、意大利宪政公投都导致海外不确定性增加,不排除再出“黑天鹅”事件,从而影响A股的风险偏好。国内方面,短期内经济无需过度担忧。但仍要关注几个可能出现的边际拐点,例如地产调控的边际拐点,货币政策的边际拐点,监管层面的持续趋严,金融去杠杆、释放信用风险的拐点。需要强调的是,未来上述风险点的证实或证伪可能导致行情阶段性波动,但年底前出现系统性风险甚至创新低的概率不大,中期来看仍是螺蛳壳里做道场。   谢伟玉:我们对大势维持谨慎的判断,调整可能尚未结束。中短期,市场核心波动区间暂时没有上行的理由,市场在波动区间上限附近展开了长时间的耗散式轮动,行业热点快速轮动必然伴随着存量资金的消耗,目前的调整是对市场微观结构的正常修复。总体来看,海外政治风险发酵,增长、宽松和约束的矛盾运动走向激化已不是可以忽略的小概率事件,对全球风险资产形成抑制。十月会有一定的弱反弹,但是我们对市场格局维持谨慎判断。   谷永涛:进入9月之后,市场出现缩震荡格局,上证综指波动幅度收窄,反映出投资者交易情绪较低。   经济面上,九月份以来,宏观数据表明经济出现向好迹象。本周公布的工业企业营收和利润数据,更加验证经济的回暖,虽然该数据有基数等因素影响,但数据依然有助于修复市场对经济的担忧。然而,我们看到市场对经济数据反应不明显,表明投资者对经济数据的认可度相对较低,未来经济能否持续向好依然存疑。   政策面上,货币政策大概率延续目前格局,政策的关注点在于财政政策能否超预期,后续财政政策的力度将影响市场预期,同时也会影响市场方向。   外围市场方面,美联储宣布九月不加息,流动性紧张预期得以缓解,但美联储的表现在市场预料之内,因此并不会给市场带来实质影响。各大央行开始反思近年来的货币政策,流动性出现拐点预期。外围市场风险传导,也是影响A股的重要因素。   以上影响市场的主要因素,短期内难以根本性改变,但经济数据好转的迹象或将保持,这会带来市场交易情绪的逐渐回暖,市场底部逐步抬升。   资金入场乏力   中国证券报:存量 资金流失格局节后会否延续?资金态度会否转变?   王德伦:资金入场仍受多个潜在风险点制约,但“资产荒”大背景下,配置需求也使得股市没有资金集中流出的风险,整体依然是存量博弈格局。首先,保监会、银监会相继对万能险和理财资金入市做出限制,后续增量资金入场难度可能加大。其次,货币宽松预期落空概率较大,甚至可能边际收紧。金融资产去泡沫、去杠杆以及欧美偏鹰等因素将同时对货币宽松形成制约。再次,金融去杠杆对资金面和货币 利率都有负面影响,近期央行相继重启14日、28日逆回购致使货币 利率上行。此外,四季度存在适当释放信用风险致使信用利差反弹的可能,从而影响风险偏好。基于以上判断,我们认为增量资金受监管制约,入场仍然乏力。但在“资产荒”大背景下,配置性需求也使得股市没有资金集中流出的风险,整体依然是存量博弈。   谢伟玉:尽管新开户数近期增长较快,但参与交易的账户数并没有大幅增加。从银证转账和 融资融券的角度看, 资金流出较为严重。我们把银证转账和港股通 净流入的情况进行比对,有理由认为近期南下港股的资金中有一部分来自A股投资者的存量资金,如果南下趋势依然,A股资金有持续被分流的风险。我们对四季度A股的资金供需结论并不乐观,减持、IPO、再融资压力持续,尤其是 大小非减持在12月将达到单月4000亿元以上。   谷永涛:市场赚钱效应较弱,导致资金成本相对较高的融资融券余额下降,未来市场出现较强的趋势性向上的概率不大,融资融券难以持续盈利或盈利难以覆盖成本,未来仍有流出趋势。而近期的净减持额度大幅增加,反映机构投资者的减持意愿,未来 机构减持意愿依然较强。   总体来看,目前A股短期赚钱效应相对较弱,对短线资金的吸引力不强,导致部分对短期盈利能力需求较强的资金流出。   风险待释放   中国证券报:节后投资者该如何操作?哪些热点有望在结构性行情中脱颖而出?   王德伦:当前时点,风险尚未充分暴露,风险收益比下降。对绝对收益投资者,建议耐心等待;对相对收益投资者,建议往人少、且有短期催化剂或预期差的地方去,精选细分板块或个股机会。   配置方面,可关注以下几类,一是估值与成长性匹配、不断兑现业绩的绩优成长股,例如家装产业链品牌化、光通信以及CDN行业;二是低估值、内生增长稳定的绩优股;例如受益于稳增长+调结构的PPP板块,消费行业中中报高景气的子行业,高股息、高分红、现金流稳定的类债品种;三是当前处于周期反转的原奶、供需紧张带来价格持续上涨的锌、以及化工中供需格局良好且供给侧政策或成本驱动下具备较大价格弹性的MDI和粘胶。主题方面可关注海绵城市、核电以及长期具有竞争优势,不断兑现业绩的核心资产组合。   谢伟玉:国庆节后需要观察人民币加入SDR后的离岸人民币走向及海外风险会否释放,建议控制仓位。由于目前还看不到增量资金入场,热点更多地集中在蓝筹类主题:首先,PPP虽有调整,但财政部第三批PPP示范项目仍未公布,可以关注。其次,预计美国未来2个月不加息,加上OPEC限产和国内供给侧结构性改革或要求11月底前完成年度目标,大宗商品或有一定反弹机会,相对看好焦煤、化工、建材等。再次,国企改革受益于混改和员工持股两项试点有望陆续公布,可能有结构性机会,其中混改试点的行业为电力、石油、天然气、铁路、民航、电信、军工等领域的一级央企,员工持股试点是在充分竞争领域如商业、纺织服装、基础化工、服务业等行业的混改国企。   谷永涛:目前A股投资者相对谨慎,热点板块持续性不强,因此,跟随热点板块的操作策略,近期难以奏效。长期来看,建议寻找价值基础相对坚实的行业,例如家用电器、医药生物、食品饮料等行业,这些行业盈利能力较强,估值相对合理,部分企业拥有较高的股息率,具备较强的安全边际。   此外,我们认为政府通过财政政策刺激经济的意愿较强。公用事业、环保等板块,或将受益于财政政策而有所表现。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: